What was in the world of reasonable oil prices a sunny economy slips into gloom and doom.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
Gold has emerged as the most stable asset during episodes of geopolitical stress, and crude oil has been more sensitive than others when it comes to regional conflicts and sanctions, according to a report in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly bulletin. Silver and the United States Treasury have showed moderate reactions.
While OPEC has been unable to agree on an output freeze in an effort to support prices, Iraq was the latest Middle East producer to raise its exports quota
From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
India has completely protected the interests of its agriculture and dairy sector in the India-US trade agreement.
Moody's said it expects exposure to low oil prices to shave off 0.8 per cent from real GDP growth on average across oil exporting countries in 2016.
An analysis of year-wise movements of average global crude oil prices versus India's GDP reveals no inverse correlation, contrary to wide belief.
Global crude oil prices slipped below $45 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel decided not to cut production.
Pushing a barrel of oil back to around $100 would require a reduction of production of about two million barrels a day - a cut that would fall predominantly on Saudi Arabia.
Noting that the country could 'well experience the effects of an oil-price shock,' Deloitte said that political instability in West Asia and a payment crisis with Iran are causes for concern.
Donald Trump posted a photo on Truth Social listing himself as 'Acting President of Venezuela,' along with his US presidential designations. This follows recent US actions against Venezuela and claims regarding control over Venezuelan oil revenue.
Suddenly, demand-supply mismatch is no longer offered as the standard plausible explanation.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs), paint manufacturers, tyre producers, and aviation stocks witnessed significant gains as Brent crude oil prices slipped below $70 per barrel. The price drop came after a double blow: The US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, including energy imports, and OPEC+ - the group of major oil-producing nations including Russia - announced an output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the first such hike since 2022.
Maintaining that the Indian economy was resilient to oil price shocks, Reserve Bank of India Governor Y V Reddy on Wednesday said the oil prices needed to be closely monitored, though it is not a disturbing factor.
High crude oil prices, widening current account gap and political uncertainty may keep the rupee weak in the near term.
International oil prices jumped to the highest level since 2014, topping $87 a barrel but domestic petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged for the 74th day in a row - a freeze that may be linked to ensuing assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Brent - the key global oil benchmark - soared to $87.7 per barrel mostly due to rising geopolitical tensions and supply-side disturbances due to Yemen's Houthi group's attack on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates. Also, global inventories are waning. The attack, some analysts believe, may lead to more hostile behaviour between the two power centres in the Middle East - Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The current trend in crude oil prices gives cause for much concern and if this persists, many of the calculations indicating further recovery and improved growth for the economy can be nullified.
Indian Oil Corporation has approached the petroleum ministry with a proposal to raise oil prices by Rs 5.29 a litre and diesel by 4.54 a litre in line with the price band formula worked out by the government.\n\n
Baghaei also alleged that recent unrest in Iran was fuelled by foreign interference, claiming riots were triggered by "very evident" interventionist remarks by US and Israeli officials.
Overall economic activity continued to hold up in November with demand conditions remaining robust, thanks to strengthening urban demand, but manufacturing and rural demand showed some signs of deceleration even as services remained strong, according to an article on the State of the Economy written by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials in the central bank's December bulletin.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
The banking sector in the country is stable, capital is available and credit offtake is poised to take off, he said at a webinar organised by Bharat Chamber of Commerce. "We are not unique to the phenomenon of uncertain growth and high inflation due to the pandemic.
Government will review fuel pricing scenario in October, Petroleum Secretary M S Srinivasan said on Thursday. The petroleum secretary further said, "Situation will be revisited in October when we will take stock of the scenario emerging out of international oil prices." Global crude prices touched a record $145 a barrel, which is expected to push India's oil import bill this year higher by nearly 76 per cent to $110-120 billion.
Leading FMCG companies have announced a price cut on their products, including soaps, shampoo, baby diapers, toothpaste, razors, and after-shave lotions, effective from September 22 to extend the GST rate cut benefits to consumers. Firms such as Procter & Gamble, Emami and HUL have come up with new price lists which have been communicated to their respective distributors and consumers through their respective websites.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
The dollar devaluation has seen revenue loss incurred by state-run oil firms on fuel sales trimming to about Rs 96 crore per day.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the surge in international oil prices is a matter of grave concern and it was for the petroleum ministry to take a call on retail pricing of petroleum products.
India said it is broad-basing and diversifying sourcing of petroleum product to meet market conditions.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Eternal declined by 4.02 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance (3.88 per cent), Sun Pharma, InterGlobe Aviation, Trent, Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Finserv. HDFC Bank emerged as the only gainer from the pack.
The value of the rupee, which has slipped to the 92 per dollar mark, does not accurately reflect India's stellar economic fundamentals, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
Economics and politics both have major roles in determining oil prices.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
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